The world is facing a serious crisis today. It is the food crisis. For several reasons, overt and covert, the population of the world is not getting enough food to eat. The very concept of food security is threatened. The western world may not feel that this is really serious. But large masses of population, particularly in Asia and Africa, are deprived of their daily morsel of food.
Several reasons are attributed to this appalling situation. The western world, including the world bodies like the International Monetary Fund, is saying that this crisis has arisen because of the sudden increase in the intake of food by the people of the emerging economies of Asia, particularly China and India. Does it mean that those who were not getting even two square meals a day should go without it?
Biological origin:
The western countries, especially the United States, are more concerned about energy, which is woefully short because of this ever - increasing needs. They are desperately searching for a substitute. Bio - fuel is considered to be a substitute. They pin their hope on ethanol, which is of a biological origin. Vast areas of wheat fields are being diverted for growing corn which is suitable for conversion into ethanol. In addition, world output of food - grains has shrunk in the last two years. In spite of the spectacular advances in science and technology, the world is still not self - sufficient in food. This is a serious problem.
It is interesting, in this context, to recall some of the most pertinent thoughts aired by one of our brilliant writers, Alvin Toffler, in his thought - provoking book called “Future Shock”. It is a disturbing and challenging book, giving us a peep - show of the world of future generation. He has written two more books which are equally challenging and disturbing. The Third Wave is one and Power Shift is another. His premise is that all the changes we are facing today are revolutionary; however, they are not enough. He bases his argument on the so - called “way front” analysis. According to him history is a succession of rolling waves of change, and asks where the leading edge of each wave is carrying us.
According to him the rise of agriculture was the first turning point in human social development. The industrial revolution was the second great breakthrough. It came even before the first wave had completely enveloped the face of the earth. The industrial revolution changed the lives of people in the western world. But even before the second wave could entirely spend its force, the so-called third wave arrived: “The widespread introduction of the computer, commercial jet travel, the birth control pill, and many other high - impact innovations”. The third wave had arrived.
Before the first wave of change, says Alvin Toffler, most humans lived in small, often migratory groups and fed themselves by foraging, fishing, hunting or herding. The first wave of change, namely, agriculture, came roughly ten millennia ago. 'It crept slowly across the planet, spreading villages, settlements, cultivated land and a new way of life'. But, as I said before, the second and third waves impinged on the previous waves even before their forces were fully exhausted. This obviously has caused much confusion and problems of agriculture; and the present food - shortage and other unforeseen crisis points have arisen.
Waves of change:
To quote Alvin Toffler again, “When a society is struck by two or more giant waves of change and none is yet clearly dominant, the image of the future is fractured. It becomes extremely difficult to sort out the meaning of the changes and conflicts that arise. The collision of wave - fronts creates a raging ocean, full of clashing currents, eddies and mail storms, which conceal the deeper, more important historic tides”. The more basic political question, according to Toffler, is not who controls the last days of industrial society, but who shapes the new civilisation rapidly using to replace it. A more profound battle is already taking place beneath the surface. The partisans of the industrial past are on one side. Growing millions recognise the most urgent problems of the world — food, energy, arms control, population, poverty, resources, ecology, climate, the problems of the aged, the breakdown of urban community, the need for productive, rewarding work. These problems continue to remain unsolved and threaten to engulf the whole world and cry for urgent and lasting solutions, and to allow the wave front to continue in its natural course, each wave absconding the changes of the previous wave.
To come to the point, in the light of the observations made by Alvin Toffler in his path - breaking books about the travails of the present age, we may try to analyse the causes of our present food shortage and know how the countries which are still in the midst of the two waves (agriculture and industry) are trying to understand the nature and significance of our present predicament, namely acute world food shortage.
Colossal change:
In the light of the observations made above, it is clear that the first wave of change, namely agriculture, has not completed its course. Its forces are not yet fully spent. It has not spread to the entire globe. Hence, the food shortage, energy problem, unrest and so on. There is confusion among our rulers and administrators as well as our thinkers, who have not yet been able to comprehend the colossal change that is bound to take place.
The argument of the western world is that the present problem is the result of the people of the fast-growing economies consuming more food — more food grains and more meat. These people, according to the west, are eating more than their share! In India most of the people are still mainly vegetarians. The Chinese have taken to more grains and more non-vegetarian food. The animals which provide flesh have to consume more corn. Land is directed to growing corn, making the shortage more acute.
The Chinese are now looking to the other parts of the globe for food. In a globalised world agriculture also should form one indivisible unit in the world. The Chinese government is encouraging agricultural establishments to enter Africa, South America and other parts of the world. They are out to buy the land or take them on lease. Forty percent of farmers of the world are in China. In Brazil 40 % of 1200 crore acres are just grazing land. It means that China is wittingly or unwittingly completing the first wave which is still incomplete. Let this process encompass all the countries.
