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How long will the UPA Government last? That is a thousand dollar question.

Rumbling clouds are gathering in the skies, foreboding the imminence of the dissolution of the circus company. The moment of truth appears to be fast approaching. The Government seems to be in fitters. The results of North-Eastern States are signalling the arrival of the Ides of March. The people at the helm of affairs at Delhi are leaving no stone unturned to retain power at any cost, at the same time they want to have their say on one of the issues of the day — the Indo - US civil nuclear agreement.

The attitude of the left parties who have not joined the UPA Government but want to wield the whip and make the Government dance to their tunes is rather enigmatic. If they are serious about preventing the government from implementing the agreement, why have they agreed that the government negotiate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and come with a report on the results of negotiations?

Nuclear deal:
If the Hyde Act powered by the American Congress comes in the way of the nuclear deal being inked by the Indian Government, there is no point in forming the negotiations. The Indian Government has not signed the Nuclear Non - Proliferation Treaty and the IAEA is trying to find ways and means of allowing the Indian Government to get nuclear supplies from the Nuclear Supplies' Group.

The United States of America, while bringing pressure on the Indian Government to complete the deal before March 15, as otherwise the American Congress would not be able to finalise the deal, it is also having its own reservations about the possibility of giving a free hand to India in getting the supply of nuclear energy.

The crucial issue is that of the Hyde Act, passed by the American Congress. While the stand of India is that the Hyde Act is an internal legislation and India has nothing to do with it, the American government seems to be talking in different voices.

Testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the US Foreign Relations Committee, US Secretary of State Condolezza Rice has said that the US government would support nothing with India in the Nuclear Supplies' Group that is contradiction to the Hyde Act. "It will have to be completely consistent with the obligations of the Hyde Act," says the US Secretary of State. She asserts that the US government will have to be consistent with the Hyde Act. She says that he does not believe that they can count on Congress to make the next step.

Ostrich - like policy:
So it is clear that the Government of India cannot hide the Hyde Act. The Government of India appears to be following the ostrich - like policy. The ostrich, it is said, hides its head in the sand and thinks that the enemy has disappeared. It is just wishful thinking on the part of the Government of India to assume that the Hyde Act is only an internal understanding between the US Government and the Congress and India need not take cognizance of the Act's existence. If the US Congress swears by the Hyde Act and insists that the US government has to see that the India abides by the restrictive conditions imposed by the Act before implementing the 123 agreement which, the Government of India thinks is the last word, India's hands would be tied and it has to abandon the agreement.

New Delhi's formulation on the nuclear deal is oblivious of the pitfalls involved in the implementation of the 123 Agreement. Perhaps it would be the height of foolishness to counter Washington's impression that the Hyde Act would prevail over the Agreement. The US Government's acts are controlled by the Hyde Act and if the Congress sticks to its stand the US government would be forced to insist that India also should abide by it.

The lengthy statement recently made by our Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee has immediately drawn sharp reaction from the left parties. They have consistently stuck their stand that they are opposed to the operationalisation of the nuclear deal, whatever may be the result of the negations that our Government is having with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Mukherjee is hopeful that India's negotiations with the IAEA would be successfully concluded and it would be possible to arrive at an agreed text of an India-specific safeguards agreement. But it is naive to believe that this would automatically open the gates for nuclear supply by the countries of the Nuclear Supply Group (NSG), countries such as Russia, the US, France and United Kingdom. The negotiations between the IAEA and India are proceeding at a snail's pace and the Agency may not loosen its tight fist to allow India to have bilateral agreement for such trade.

It is obvious that the UPA Government is already in the election mode. Speculation is rife that it may dare to follow a collision course with the left front, by operationalising the nuclear agreement, come what may. Pranab Mukherjee insists that the Government would strive to arrive at a broad consensus regarding the agreement. But the situation seems to be otherwise. Even the NDA is insisting that unless the Hyde Act is dropped it may not agree to support the Government.

Loan waiver:
But New Delhi is riding on the back of a Budget that is being tagged 'feel good' for the Rs. 60,000 crore loan waiver it has provided to farmers, the tax cut for the middle class and other concessions. March 15 — Ides of March — seems to be the deciding moment — the moment of truth. The Government is confident of striking the deal with the IAEA. The stage appears to be set for political wrangling between the Congress and the left. A section of the Congress is said to be confident of meeting the challenge posed by the left and on arguing that the party should cash in on the impact of the Budget announcement to dissolve the Parliament and declare general elections far ahead of the day on which it is due (May 2009).

But wise counsel seems to prevail and the leadership in the Congress is not in favour of precipitating a crisis. The election results in the North-Eastern States are a pointer.

The left parties are in a fighting mood. They all seem to oppose the operationalisation tooth and nail. They have expressed their dissatisfaction at the way the Government has allowed the price situation to go out of hand. The recent rise in petroleum price, the rise in the prices of foodstuffs and the refusal of Government not to abolish duties to neutralise. The effect of rise in crude oil prices have angered the left.

HSK
Courtesy: Star of Mysore