All's well that ends well is the title of a Shakespearean play. The long trauma of the UPA Government at the Center is believed to have ended with the Government's winning the Trust Vote. But has it ended? The Government is hopeful of finally signing the 1 – 2 - 3 nuclear agreement with the United States. There are still many hurdles on the way. It is not easy to overcome them.
At home also, the Central Government has to face many problems. By attempting to solve one problem, the Government has created many new problems. Those who agreed to back the Government in the Trust Vote are not simpletons or novices. The price that the Government has to pay is enormous. The reputation of the Government is the first casualty. Perhaps the 'loser takes all'. Naming Mayawati as the next Prime Minister is only a symbol. It heralds the arrival of many hardships for the Government. The person who takes over power may be Mayawati or Advani or some one else. Will there be the name of a Congressman in the short list of probable Prime Ministers? One cannot hazard an answer in the positive. The fallout of the nuclear agreement is multidimensional.
Consequences:
Even before the splitting of the atom in the reactors that may be started in India to produce nuclear power, the political and economic consequences seem to be very disastrous. The unenviable position to which the Government would be forced by the parties agreeing to back the Government is something beyond one's imagination. For the first time, we find the industry's great concern about the changes in the political arena. The exit of the left parties necessitated the entry of parties not found desirable by the UPA Government in the past. For the first time in recent years, the industry felt the heat of the change in the contour of power at the Centre. The Samajwadi Party which lent support to the Government is said to be discomfortingly close to Anil Ambani, the estranged brother of Mukesh Ambani. The meeting between Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh and Mukesh Ambani caused grave concern for Anil Ambani and Amar Singh of the Samajwadi Party as well as its President Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Demands and consequences:
Certain demands made by the party in lieu of the support to the Government were very serious indeed. The demands are said to have been made by the party in the interest of the nation and not to help Anil Ambani. It is not yet possible to clearly define these demands and their consequences on the economy. Anyway, this is a serious issue. Many other demands made by the Samajwadi party are also said to have a bearing on our economy. Many industrial houses have expressed grave concern about them. Recently, Amar Singh is reported to have said that some of the clauses of the 1 – 2 - 3 agreement on nuclear power seem to harm India and the Government is called upon to bring pressure on the US Government to amend them. The Government cannot rest assured that it has freed itself from the cluster of the leftists. It is now in the clutches of the Samajwadi Party. It is like falling from the frying pan to fire!
The Government is very serious in making the nuclear deal operational as soon as possible. The remaining months of the UPA Government are very crucial. The Government has to take urgent measures to tame inflation. Otherwise it will take a heavy toll on the Government. Just at present the priority is operationalising the nuclear deal. But it cannot be the panacea for all ills. Yet this must be addressed first. The Prime Minister is happy as the nuclear deal will end 'nuclear apartheid' and allow energy-starved India to buy the nuclear fuel and technology needed to build more nuclear power plants.
Increasing nuclear capacity:
It is claimed by the Government that India could add 40,000 MW of fresh nuclear capacity in the next twenty years. According to the World Nuclear Association (WNA), India will add 20-30 new reactors by 2020. This is a golden opportunity for global power equipment supplies and those who possess the know - how. This will need investments of about Rs. 2,40,000 crore. The global firms are evincing much interest in this field. They are making alliances among themselves to reap the benefit. Some are launching new business. Rolls Royce is opening a separate unit to scout for opportunities in the civil nuclear market. While Areva of France has shown interest in India's nuclear power programme as early as 2006, now it has entered into an alliance with Japan's Mitsubishi. General Electric is not lagging behind; It has formed an alliance with Hitachi. Westing - house also had dreamt of such an alliance. It is now a subsidiary of Toshiba. Mitsubishi is joining L & T also to manufacture turbines and boilers. Toshiba has decided to establish a unit in India with the same purpose. All this may be very good in the long run. But the country has to safeguard its interests while allowing global powers to expand their business in India.
Power supply:
But the urgent need, apart from taming inflation, is providing power supply to meet the requirements of the country. The present plans of the Government in the field of nuclear power can meet just 10 per cent of India's energy needs. Though in the long run we may be able to generate nuclear power in sufficient quantities, the present danger is the dislocation of the economy as a result of the impossible demands of the political parties for lending their support to the Government. The disadvantages outweigh the advantages.
The Government is forced to be always on its toes to meet the whimsical demands of the supporting parties. If the Samajawadi party's demand is in the oil field, the Jharkand Mukti Morcha's (JMM) demand is in the coal sector. This sector has always been suffering from endemic corruption. The control and management is in the hands of vested interests. The attempts of the UPA Government to rid it of its evils may not succeed. The failure to operationalise the nuclear deal or heed to the unfair demands of the supporting parties may result in the fall of the UPA Government.
HSK
Courtesy: Star of Mysore
